Confusion in Mindanao

Despite the danger of escalating tensions towards full-scale war, certain shady individuals are goading both parties enmeshed in the hostilities and appear to be the ones who organized the hostage-taking as well as the burning of entire villages in Zamboanga.

Captured persons alleged to be members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) confessed to interrogators that they were not ordered to participate in a war.

Before jumping off from Basilan into Zamboanga-bound bancas (small sea vessels commonly used by fishermen), they were told to support the prayer rally – educational assembly or teach-in against the pork barrel at the EDSA Shrine in Ortigas by holding a similar rally in Zamboanga City.

For the task, they were given an inordinate amount of cash and upon boarding the bancas, they were issued firearms one for each rallyist.

While en route to Zamboanga, over sea waters they were hailed and shot at by Philippine Navy elements and were forced to surrender. The story above they told their captors does not tally with the current tale that Commander Habier Malik mobilized them for all-out war or jihad against the infidel Philippine Government and their so-called sworn enemies – brother Muslims in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

A number of names of people heretofore unheard of recently in the media to be parties to the conflict came up during the interrogations. Leaders of the MNLF who received the same information from the supposed rallyists vs. pork barrel are now confused as to how the situation in Zamboanga came to be. And why they are at the receiving end of the blame, when it appears that the active involvement of certain persons without any relevant connection to MNLF and the Islamic cause, effectively plunged the forty year old Moro liberation movement into the quagmire.

The question now is that while there is battle raging in Zamboanga, two opposing parties are shooting each other to death, in the end who is going to benefit?

Furthermore, while the consensus among many quarters and the lament of the MNLF is to reach a peaceful accord with government, why did the occupant of the house by the Pasig River come over to Zamboanga and warned of the use of more force if the MNLF does not surrender and suffer the consequences of their supposed crimes?  What if the MNLF was simply trapped into filling a role that was painstakingly defined and tailored-fit for them for the aggrandizement of certain ambitious, devious persons?

The conclusion is much awaited.

Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) Mindanao

Events in Western Mindanao at the present time all point towards escalating fourth generation war.

4G warfare is defined as early as in 1989 as amorphous (without shape and specific definition), stateless, borderless, non-conventional war. It is also timeless. For demonstration, the overly protracted conflict between Israel and selected Middle East neighbors have overblown into 4G warfare. However, its worst feature is that 4G warfare crosses all lines of demarcation:  it does not distinguish between soldier-combatants and civilians. This form of warfare shows its antagonists engage in all sorts of unimaginable acts and does not follow the Geneva Conventions on agreed upon humanitarian considerations during wartime.

Although some military historians and analysts refuse to accept the 4G warfare (as well as the much-propounded 5th Generation warfare – 5G) doctrine, arguing that both the 4G and 5Gconcepts of warfare are weak in that they are governed by their own aspects of conventionality it is still in order to recognize the burgeoning threat to life and property, to the economic well-being of a social enclave or a country of minor conflict rapidly escalating into bigger war.

In its most poignant manifestation as the burning of Islamic villages at the outset of the 1980s in Mindanao that led to the long-standing Muslim secessionist posture and the rise of highly non-conventional war in Western Mindanao that spilled over disproportionately to Central Mindanao after the late Salamat Hashim broke ties with Misuari Nur this kind of warfare tactic and strategy ravages everything in its path.

This is being repeated in a formerly Islamic trading capital town, Zamboanga City now populated also by a dominantly Christian population who learned to speak a language that is half Spanish and half vernacular dialect.

Failure in negotiations and lack of crisis scenario planning and management, futures modeling and war gaming exercise among many other significant and trivial factors, brought the present situation in Western Mindanao to what it is today.

It is now anticipated, that since half of the base of support of Misuari is in the Zamboanga Peninsula and Basilan and both enjoy proximity to Central Mindanao where a sizeable faction of the Salamat Hashim group are found, troubles will ultimately spill over to Central Mindanao.

It is merely a matter of time before the atrocities escalate into unmanageable proportions and spread over to other major islands in the northern part of the country.

Considering that coinciding with events in 1995, during the merging of Christian Democrats with Islamic political parties, Muslim communities sprang up like mushrooms all over the Philippine archipelago, the base of support for all secessionist leaning organizations formerly isolated in the South, has now expanded into staggering size.

This is a precursory requisite for borderless warfare that will no longer be confined merely to the South, unless mitigating circumstances will arise and relative peace once more will be enjoyed in larger parts of the country.

For the uninitiated government technocracy, peace could be merely wishful thinking at the present, but it is achievable. The best stopgap should lie in what was began by former Director of the National Security Council and erstwhile Adviser of the late President Corazon Cojuangco Aquino.

The Hon. Dr. Emmanuel Valdez Soriano, intimately close to and known by the current Secretary of National Defense, Gen. Voltaire Tuvera Gazmin while he was Group Commander of the Presidential Security Group at the time, thought about conflict in terms of macrocosmic models.

In several sessions with him at his non-descript office in Makati City, the former National Security Adviser repeatedly tasked the building of models for flashpoints monitoring. Other more strategic modeling were undertaken during his watch. This concept was introduced several times into the succeeding administrations to no avail even with Gen. Jose Tan Almonte and former President Fidel Valdez Ramos re-inventing the process with the creation of Tactical, Policy and Strategic commissions under the National Security Council and putting managers under these newly formed units. The novel offices however were limited to simple reading and proofreading of letters, studies, proposals instead of engaging in flashpoint monitoring, crisis mapping and futures modeling.

The present National Security Council cannot hold a candle to the old wise men who headed that office. From the top to bottom, they don’t even know what story to believe and who to trust in. They cannot identify one solid fact to be true and lies are often taken as gospel truth. Furthermore, Dr. Emmanuel Valdez Soriano was not particular about personal wealth or expenditures, was hardly engaged in things that beclouded human judgment such as addiction to substances and other vices, which cannot be said of his present contemporaries.

The defense establishment is headed by a humble and modest former junior colleague of the doctor who declined the appointment to defense secretary several times stating his reason to be that there are more than 200 congressmen and there are 24 senators. In effect, as Secretary of National Defense, he will have 224 more bosses than His Excellency President Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino III who is only one person, notwithstanding that His Excellency, The President will have several little presidents all over him, as well as close family, friends and what other.

Following the uncovering of the dirt and shit soiling the faces, shirts and undergarments of of our venerable 224 and top men and women of line agencies of the bureaucracy, Gen. Gazmin’s humility and modesty befitting of a better man, is probably just in the right place.

The constitution of top leadership of the security cluster defines the present situation now unfolding in Western Mindanao. However, even if the correct solutions will be undertaken by a private-led initiative, no one can dare say that it will be against the grain. In most other advanced or backward states, the concerned citizens of nations always rise up to the challenge of contributing to their country during crisis. In case of what is happening now, this call is made to the private sector, the clergy, all the other sectors, to rise up and be counted. At no other time but in crisis and the fights of Emmanuel Pacquiao are people ready to agree, link hands and even work together. This is one of those times and everyone who wants to help must come out and lend a hand. Left ungoverned, the security cluster will commit one faux pas after another to ensure that the trouble in Mindanao will last for a minimum of another ten years such as during the time of Pres. Marcos.

This time, it will not merely be Malaysia just training the Misuari fighters and some Christian Social Democrats supposed warriors thrown into the picture (formerly courtesy of Sen. Jovito Salonga). With the Salamat Hashim and Indon relatives in high places, royalty and business elite, the support of Indonesia with possibly increased help of several Malaysian political factions, without discounting that of some of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation members for the Misuari group can push the current troubles into a full functional 4G level.

The answer to the troubles in Zamboanga lies in diplomacy and a political solution. The sustaining of the effort to increase safe spaces should be found in properly supported future modeling, crisis mapping, scenario building and counteraction-countermeasures planning, as well as a wide range of related activities along this line. This is where the rest of the country could pitch in to boost a sagging government conflict resolution strategy.

To make things lighter than they are now, the irony is that there are cellular mobile phones even His Excellency The President is using that are merely operating on 3G. How the hell really is government going to respond to 4G? Email: workers@rebus21.shop.ms.

Related articles:

Business Mirror: Increasing number of Zamboanga casualties
Bloomberg.com on spreading violence in Zamboanga
Xinhua.net warning about threat escalating
ANC: Analyst says government must listen to Misuari
Sunstar: Cebu raises alert level
Philippine Star: Government force augmentation – 500 Scout Rangers sent to Zamboanga
CNN early news on hostage taking in Zamboanga